Issue Details

Number
11800
Title
Bitcoin is returning higher fees for 36 block window than 2 block window (on testnet)
Description
In testnet, right now, `estimatesmartfee` is returning *higher* estimates for 36 block window than 2 block window. The results: ``` estimatesmartfee 2 -> { "feerate": 0.01254483, "blocks": 2 } estimatesmartfee 36 -> { "feerate": 0.03863968, "blocks": 36 } estimaterawfee 2 -> { "short": { "decay": 0.962, "scale": 1, "fail": { "startrange": 490954, "endrange": 1e+99, "withintarget": 35, "totalconfirmed": 35.41, "inmempool": 165, "leftmempool": 0 }, "errors": [ "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold" ] }, "medium": { "feerate": 0.01254483, "decay": 0.9952, "scale": 2, "pass": { "startrange": 626596, "endrange": 1e+99, "withintarget": 38, "totalconfirmed": 38.96, "inmempool": 1, "leftmempool": 0 }, "fail": { "startrange": 596758, "endrange": 626596, "withintarget": 15.9, "totalconfirmed": 50.78, "inmempool": 14, "leftmempool": 0 } }, "long": { "decay": 0.99931, "scale": 24, "fail": { "startrange": 799713, "endrange": 1e+99, "withintarget": 138.78, "totalconfirmed": 147.56, "inmempool": 1, "leftmempool": 0 }, "errors": [ "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold" ] } } estimaterawfee 36 -> { "medium": { "feerate": 0.01254483, "decay": 0.9952, "scale": 2, "pass": { "startrange": 690822, "endrange": 1e+99, "withintarget": 37.33, "totalconfirmed": 38.19, "inmempool": 1, "leftmempool": 0 }, "fail": { "startrange": 596758, "endrange": 690822, "withintarget": 47.22, "totalconfirmed": 51.99, "inmempool": 12, "leftmempool": 0 } }, "long": { "decay": 0.99931, "scale": 24, "fail": { "startrange": 799713, "endrange": 1e+99, "withintarget": 139.47, "totalconfirmed": 147.66, "inmempool": 1, "leftmempool": 0 }, "errors": [ "Insufficient data or no feerate found which meets threshold" ] } } ``` I am also attaching fee_estimates.dat [fee_estimates.dat.zip](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/files/1518545/fee_estimates.dat.zip) Of course testnet is always "weird", but 36 block estimate being higher than 2 block estimate doesn't make sense, even on testnet. The version of bitcoind is v0.15.0.0
URL
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issue/11800
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